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USA Economics Economics & Investing For Preppers

USA Economics Economics & Investing For Preppers

USA Economics Economics & Investing For Preppers

USA Economics Economics & Investing For Preppers


USA

USA Economics Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, I’ll describe the risk of a fourth…

USA Economics Economics & Investing For Preppers

USA Economics

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, I’ll describe the risk of a fourth major crisis for 2020: A banking and derivatives market collapse. (See the Derivatives section.)

Precious Metals:

First off, the latest from South African metals analyst Hub Moolman: Gold New All-Time Highs and Beyond

o  o  o

83 Tons Of Fake Gold Bars: Gold Market Rocked By Massive China Counterfeiting Scandal. JWR’s Comment:  Which is worse, morally? The Chinese stacking fake gold, or the U.S. Treasury claiming a fake tally for hundreds of tons of gold that no longer resides in the Fort Knox vaults?

Economy & Finance:

Economist Nouriel Roubini: ‘My Prediction for a Great Depression Is Not About 2020, but the Decade of the 2020s’

o  o  o

US Bankruptcies Busting Out to Match 2009 Peak Mean Trouble for Stock Market

o  o  o

Fed Reveals Bond Purchases Including AT&T, UnitedHealth, Walmart. JWR’s Comment:  On the macro scale of the markets, these are quite trivial bond purchases. (Millions, rather than Billions.) What is troubling is that the mechanism is now in place for much larger purchases, in some future crisis.

Commodities:

H.L. sent us this: USDA Crop Report Shocker Sends Corn Futures Surging

o  o  o

COVID Impact – 1.5 Billion Pound Potato Mountain Trapped In Supply Chain 

o  o  o

Visualizing Thirty Years of Crude Oil Prices

o  o  o

Huge Debt Payments at Worst Time for Canadian Oil Drillers

Derivatives:

Frank Partnoy, writing in The Atlantic: The Looming Bank Collapse. This article begins:

“After months of living with the coronavirus pandemic, American citizens are well aware of the toll it has taken on the economy: broken supply chains, record unemployment, failing small businesses. All of these factors are serious and could mire the United States in a deep, prolonged recession. But there’s another threat to the economy, too. It lurks on the balance sheets of the big banks, and it could be cataclysmic. Imagine if, in addition to all the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic, you woke up one morning to find that the financial sector had collapsed.”

JWR’s Comment:  I consider a banking crisis fairly likely, even though bank deposits are presently at an all-time high. The trigger will be counterparty risk in the derivatives called Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS).  Note that this happened before, on a smaller scale, in 2008.

o  o  o

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At Wolf Street: Mall and Hotel Loans Are Blowing up Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities

Forex & Cryptos:

At Yahoo Finance: Covid-19 Isn’t Killing Cash. People Are Hoarding More of It

o  o  o

Where’s the beef? Lebanon’s currency crash puts desperation on the menu

o  o  o

Another from H.L.: US Mint Ups Coin Production To Circumvent Shortage

o  o  o

What Death Spiral? Bitcoin Hash Rate Surges to Fresh All-Time High

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Venezuelan Authorities Seize Over 300 Bitcoin Mining Machines

Tangibles Investing:

The June, 2020 tally: A new record for U.S. gun sales. (3.9 million background checks!) An excerpt:

“The National Instant Criminal Background Check System conducted 3.9 million checks in June, an increase of 70 percent over June 2019. Last month’s numbers broke the previous record of 2.7 million checks set in March.

Already this year, the FBI has recorded 19 million background checks in the system, more than were recorded during first 14 years of the system, which has been operating since 1998. Only six months into 2020, the surge in checks is already nearing last year’s record of 28 million background checks.”

If sales continue apace, then I’d estimate there will be about 38 million gun sales for the year 2020. To put that in perspective, that is about 1.5 times the population of Australia or just under the current population of California — in one year!  Or, to picture it another way, that is eight new guns for every “net” new citizen born or immigrated this year. Any leftist politician who believes that it is possible to disarm the American populace is suffering from severe delusions.


o  o  o

The Hill reports on the accelerating suburban and rural relocation rush: Americans leave large cities for suburban areas and rural towns. (Thanks to J.L. for the link.)

Provisos:

SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.

News Tips:

Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail of via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant, because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News items from local news outlets that are missed by the news wire services are especially appreciated. And it need not be only about commodities and precious metals. Thanks!

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USA

USA Economics Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at natural gas production (and…

USA Economics Economics & Investing For Preppers

USA Economics

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at natural gas production (and waste.) The photo at the top of this column is a satellite photo montage of the lights of North America, at night. The swarm of dots seen in western North Dakota are not city lights. That is actually light created by extensive natural gas flaring. (See the Commodities section.)

Precious Metals:

Germans Rush to Buy Gold as Draft Bill Threatens to Restrict Purchases

o  o  o

A fascinating piece by Lyn Alden, over at Gold-Eagle: Gold Price Forecast: A Weaker Dollar Is The Easiest Path To $2,000 Gold

o  o  o

Antonius Aquinas: The Ethics of a Gold Standard

Economy & Finance:

My wife (Avalanche Lily) suggested this: 2020 FINANCIAL CRISIS — Has it started? The $500 Billion Dollar Question

o  o  o

At Zero Hedge: The New Colonization: China Is Building Enormous Self-Sustaining Chinese Cities All Over The African Continent

o  o  o

2020 FINANCIAL CRISIS — Has it started? The $500 Billion Dollar Question

o  o  o

Ed Yardeni Warns 20% Pullback Could Strike Early 2020


Commodities (Natural Gas Flaring):

At Wolf Street: Dallas Fed Outlines Somber Oil & Gas Industry, “Flaring” of Natural Gas Comes into Focus. Here is an excerpt:

“This time, there were additional questions, including on the reasons for “flaring” of natural gas in the Permian Basin. Natural gas is so abundant in the hydrocarbon mix produced at these wells (“associated” natural gas), and natural-gas pipeline takeaway capacity is so insufficient, that the surge in production led to the collapse of the price of natural gas in the area, reportedly dropping below zero on occasion. And it led to a record amount of natural gas getting flared in 2019.

Flaring large amounts of gas is a waste of natural resources, a source of air pollution, and a big financial drag for the already struggling oil-and-gas companies, investors, and banks.

To get a better handle on this, the Dallas Fed asked what the executives thought “the main reasons for the increase” in flaring in 2019 were (multiple choice, with the option to “check all that apply”):

  • 73%: insufficient pipeline take-away capacity for gas
  • 49%: lack of gathering and processing capacity for gas
  • 45%: processing and transportation fees for gas that exceed the value of the gas
  • 15%: temporary outages/issues with gas infrastructure”

o  o  o

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OilPrice News reports: Is The Shale Boom Running On Fumes? JWR’s Comments:  No, it is burning off those valuable fumes! I assert that shale oil drillers should be given tax incentives to capture more of the (currently wasted) natural gas. That would result in a huge long-term surplus of natural gas that could be piped long distance and even exported as LNG.

o  o  o

H.L. sent us this: China’s Imports of US Soy Soar to 20 Month High as Food Inflation Explodes

Forex & Cryptos:

Reader G.P. forwarded this:  Venezuela’s currency: Worth more as craft paper than as money

o  o  o

A British Pound forecast for 2020.

o  o  o

Tyler Durden: A Farewell To Paper Money?

o  o  o

Cryptocurrency Influencers Speak Out On YouTube Deleting Crypto-Related Content

Tangibles Investing:

An often overlooked (and undervalued) niche in the antique gun world is Remington Rolling Block rifles. The folks at Midway put together an excellent 8-minute video primer, showing the basic Remington Rolling Block variations.  As with all other antique guns, condition is crucial. (That is, unless you are just looking for a practical shooter.) Remington Rolling Block rifles were issued all the way up to World War I–by the French army. They can be surprisingly practical rifles. It has been rightfully called “The best single shot rifle ever made.”

o  o  o

There are also some nice replica rolling blocks, but they often sell for more than the originals. And keep in mind that that most of the originals are pre-1899 production and hence Federally exempt from paperwork when sold across state lines.  The only replicas that enjoy that exemption are the few that are chambered for obsolete cartridges. So those would only be of interest to folks who handload.

o  o  o

This echoes what I’ve already warned: “Tail-End Of A Big Bull Market” – Wine, Diamonds, Classic Cars Are Now Money-Losing Investments For Ultra-Rich 

Provisos:

SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.

News Tips:

Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail of via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant, because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News from local news outlets that is missed by the news wire services is especially appreciated. And it need not be only about commodities and precious metals. Thanks!

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USA

USA Economics Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at the corporate debt bubble.…

USA Economics Economics & Investing For Preppers

USA Economics

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at the corporate debt bubble. (See the Economy & Finance section.)

Precious Metals:

Allen Sykora: Palladium may lose some altitude but expected to remain at lofty heights

o  o  o

Kitco: Asset allocation tips to prepare for more volatility in 2020

Economy & Finance:

Reader Mark J. was the first of several to send us this, at Zero Hedge: “Massive… Huge… Largest Ever”: Fed Will Flood Market With Gargantuan $500 Billion In Liquidity To Avoid Year-End Repo Crisis

o  o  o

At Wolf Street: Is the Corporate-Debt Bubble Ripe Yet? An excerpt:

“In its Financial Stability Report, the Fed warns about the ballooning debts of non-financial businesses. These are businesses that are not lenders. Excluding lenders from the tally prevents double counting of debts, since lenders borrow money to lend money. So this is money that non-financial companies owe, and they range from mom-and-pop restaurants to Apple.

The Fed measures this debt in several ways. In absolute dollars, these debts have skyrocketed from record to record and have hit $18 trillion. And as a percent of GDP, these debts have reached historic highs. The Fed says that “the most rapid increases in debt are concentrated among the riskiest firms amid weak credit standards.”

So we’ve got historically high debt levels, especially among the most leveraged companies with negative cash flows, amid loosey-goosey underwriting standards.

And the Fed warns about, laments, and bemoans the speed of this debt pileup, with business debts jumping by 5.1% over the past 12 months, much faster than the economy grew.”

Commodities:

H.L. sent us this: Platts’ Five Major Commodity Themes For 2020

o  o  o

Nick Cunningham at OilPrice News reports: IEA: An Oil Glut Is Inevitable In 2020

National Debt and Deficit:

Debt Could Reach Record Levels by 2030

o  o  o

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US budget deficit rises to $209 billion in November

o  o  o

Scooby say: “Ruh-roh!”: Funding Of US Deficits By Monetary Creation Reaches 90% In Late 2019

Forex & Cryptos:

File under:  “I Told You So”: Pound Sterling Surges on Election Outcome. A snippet:

The Pound shot higher against a host of major currencies on the results of the exit poll of the General Election, that showed Boris Johnson’s Conservative party were on course for a landslide unseen since the era of Margaret Thatcher.

o  o  o

USD/EUR Forecast, USD/EUR currency rate prediction: Buy or sell USD/EUR pair?

o  o  o

Ethereum Could Plummet to Lower-$100 Level if Bulls Fail to Hold Key Support Level

o  o  o

Bitcoin Poised to Collapse Under $5,000? Market Cycle Fractal Suggests So. JWR’s Comment: Take all of this with a grain of salt. I’m not a big believer in the chartists in the equities world, and even less so in the crypto world. Chartist “analysis” in crypto markets is an abstraction of an abstraction.

Tangibles Investing:

Dr. Lori: Predictions & the Antiques Market

Provisos:

SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.

News Tips:

Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail of via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant, because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News from local news outlets that is missed by the news wire services is especially appreciated. And it need not be only about commodities and precious metals. Thanks!

Subscribe to the newsletter news

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USA

USA Economics Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at rare postage stamps. (See…

USA Economics Economics & Investing For Preppers

USA Economics

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at rare postage stamps. (See the Tangibles Investing section.)

Precious Metals:

Gold prices holding steady, waiting for potential trade fallout after Thanksgiving holiday

o  o  o

H.L. sent us this: Poland Repatriates Gold From Bank of England Storage to ‘Show Strength of its Economy’

Economy & Finance:

Martin W. Armstrong:  QE Versus Managing Benchmark rates.

o  o  o

At Zero Hedge: Chinese Media Stunner: China Will Be The Next Country To Cut Rates To Zero

o  o  o

Voting with their feet: After Years of Threats, Schwab Joins Exodus, to Move Headquarters from San Francisco to Texas. Here is a quote:

“In 2015, Schwab still had 2,040 employees in San Francisco. By now, that has shrunk to 1,200.

So the writing was on the wall, when in May 2019, Charles Schwab himself indicated that moving the company’s headquarters out of San Francisco is being kicked around.

‘We’re pretty much a national company now,’ he told the San Francisco Business Times. He was “not sure” the company would remain in San Francisco. ‘We’ll continue looking at that as a possibility,” he said. “The costs of doing business here are so much higher than in some other place.’”

Commodities:

Oil steady amid muted Thanksgiving trade and ahead of OPEC+ meet

o  o  o

OilPrice News reports: Reuters Confirms That Iran Was Behind The Saudi Oil Attacks

Cryptos:

Intensely Bearish BTC Futures Market Predicts Gloomy 2020 for Bitcoin Price

o  o  o

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China’s ‘Official’ Virtual Currency Could Be Arriving “Quite Soon” To “Challenge The U.S.”

o  o  o

Reader T.Z. flagged this: When the internet is cut off, protestors find it hard to rely on bitcoin

o  o  o

And one more from H.L.: Bitcoin ATM Firm Partners With Largest Shopping Mall Operator In US

Tangibles Investing (Rare Postage Stamps):

I’ve recently had two readers ask me about investing in rare postage stamps.  My advice is simple: Unless you want to become an expert in one small niche in the market that you can be certain has great upside potential, then don’t bother. The main problem with postage stamp investing is the new access to the Internet via smart phones, worldwide. So a stamp that seemed truly “rare” 20 years ago now can be all too commonplace, with the global marketplace acting like an enormous auction, in reverse.  Sellers are jostling to under-bid each other. So, with the exception of a few ultra-rare stamps that sell for $10,000 USD+, the rest of the market is presently trapped in a slow downward spiral. The second problem with stamps is generational. The bulk of American stamp collectors are now in their 70s and 80s. The entire millennial generation has little interest in stamps, because they rarely receive letters from overseas friends and relatives. They get e-mails from them, or they chit-chat on Skype.  So the long term prospects look poor for the development of a new generation of investor-age stamp collectors.

Annual Financial/Investing Disclosures:

By Federal law, I am obliged to make periodic public disclosures.

For the record: I am presently the sole author of SurvivalBlog’s twice-weekly posted Economics & Investing For Preppers column. I am not a paid investment counselor or adviser. My paid consulting is on preparedness, relocation, retreat property development, and related topics–not on investing, per se.

I am not a board member of any corporation. I hold no stocks, bonds, options, registered securities, or ETFs whatsoever. I am not paid or otherwise compensated by any company to promote any investment vehicle or currency.

I do not recommend or endorse any financial particular investment advisor, firm, blog, or web site, although I do quote various advisors and make links to their web sites. Such mentions and links are my own choices, and are never compensated.

While I personally hold precious metals, firearms, ammuntion, and other tangibles as a large portion of my portfolio, I have no connection or financial arrangement with any firm, other than that some such firms do buy advertising space in SurvivalBlog, and that we have affiliate advertising contracts in place with others. I do on occasion personally make purchases from these companies. However, I receive no special discounts or other consideration from them. Such advertising relationships have no bearing on the investing news that I report and the recommendations that I make. I personally hold some foreign currencies, but I have never held Forex options. I have never held any Comex options.

We maintain walls of separation between advertising, consulting, and editorial realms. No editorial space or content in this column is ever promised to any advertiser or consulting client. A few article links have been suggested by our advertisers, but we have never been compensated or felt obliged to post them. We do earn commissions on sales of books and other items linked to Amazon.com, through teh Amazon Associate program. We universally reject the dozens paid editorial, infographic, product review, and link placement requests that we receive every week via e-mail from spammers, scammers, SEO wonks, and manipulators.

I am not now, nor have I ever been an agent of any foreign nation. After being de-briefed from Special Access Programs (SAPs), I resigned my commission as a U.S. Army Intelligence Corps officer on January 20, 1993. (The day that Bill Clinton first took office.)  I have had no tasking or relationship whatsoever with the U.S. government, the U.S. Army, or any government agencies, other than as a normal taxpaying citizen. I did however, work as defense contractor in a technical writing and proposal writing capacity for various defense-related companies up until July, 2006. I no longer hold an active security clearance. I am a past-member of the Association of Former Intelligence Officers (AFIO), but have had no contact with that organization since the mid-1990s.

In sum, we do our very best to operate SurvivalBlog.com as ethically as possible. Our editorial integrity is very important to us. We will never betray the trust of our readers. In an age where journalistic prostitution has become the norm in the blogging world, we stand apart.

Provisos:

SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.

News Tips:

Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail of via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant, because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News from local news outlets that is missed by the news wire services is especially appreciated. And it need not be only about commodities and precious metals. Thanks!

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